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Influenza Pandemics:
THE SOCIAL IMPACT OF A PANDEMIC (Part 3)
Before we look at the possible social impact of a pandemic, here is a summary
of what experts predict:
• 15% of experts believe there will be a pandemic within 3 years; nearly 90%
think there will be a pandemic in our children or our grandchildren’s lifetimes
• How many people will become ill in such a pandemic, worldwide? 650 million to
2.8 billion
• What will be the case-fatality rate? 3 to 7%
• How many people will die in this pandemic? 25 million to 165 million
• Will we have sufficient vaccine when a pandemic begins? Nearly all experts say
no.
• Will we have sufficient anti-virals when a pandemic begins? Nearly all experts
say no.
• The non medical social costs of a pandemic may well exceed the costs due
directly to morbidity and mortality.
When we get to phase 4 on the WHO Pandemic Alert scale the world as we know it today will change: no one will get onto an airplane, mass transport will slow down and the "just-in-time” inventory systems as we know it will change because the behavior of people will change. This will mean an economic change of enormous consequence.
Experts agree that should an influenza pandemic break out today, between 1 and 2 billion would get sick and as many 30 - 165 million would die. There would be a global recession and depression as our globalized economy would unravel with a cost to our economy of 1 - 3 trillion dollars!
The Social and Political Effects Following a Pandemic
Experts suggest the following list are the most important consequences of a worst-case outbreak other than morbidity and mortality:
Commerce disruption
- Transportation
- Communications
- Bankruptcy
- Economic depression
Health care disruption
- Hospital overload
- Shortage of staff
- Shortage of supplies
Food shortages
- Famine
- Disruption of supplies to the poor
- Deaths from shortages
Public safety disruption
- Lawlessness
- Violence
- Public panic
Political unrest
- Loss of trust in government
- Wars over shortages
- Rise in fascism
- Global terrorism
Social fabric disruption
- Human suffering and loss
- Migration
Long-term effects
- Demographic
- Psychological
That is quite an amazing list! Should we be worried?
Yes and no. We should not become so worried that we begin to live in fear and try to make this something it is not. At this point, there is no pandemic! However, we also cannot put our heads in the sand and pretend that a pandemic is not possible or even likely. Instead, with planning, working on the public health globally and especially early detection and early defense mechanisms.
Sources:
Dr. Michael Osterholm, CDC, Avian flu: update and review: Meeting on effective response and business
continuity for UN and humanitarian agencies, Tufts University, Boston,
Larry Brilliant, MD MPH, January 12, 2006
Next: » The six phases and three periods defined by WHO for Pandemics
All Articles
in this series:
» The Influenza Pandemics of the 20th Century.
» Defending ourselves against the next influenza
pandemic.
» Outcomes and Social Reshaping following a 21st Century Pandemic.
» The six phases and three periods defined by WHO for Pandemics.
» The Ethics of Pandemics - who gets the medicine and who decides.
» Scenario - how the next influenza pandemic is likely to start.
Video Presentation:
(Requires free Google video software) (3 min)
Bird Flu Report 10 - 1918 Spanish Flu Bird Flu Who's Who series; Andrew
Jakomas, survivor; Dr. Jeffery Taubenberger, U.S. Armed Forces Institute of
Pathology; Sir John Skehel, National Institute for Medical Research, UK; gene
sequence; virus proteins; avian flu; influenza pandemic. (Opens in a new window
on the Google Video site.)